A complete fictional setup audit showing how available Shopify history becomes 16 observations, ranked actions, evidence and pre-ship context. A real issue only shows the sections and findings supported by your store data.
expected recovery from 10 open disputes you can still contest, out of €934,777 refunded. Activity available from Aug 5, 2025 to Aug 5, 2026.
This issue records 16 observations: 2 to recover, 6 worth reviewing, 2 to watch and 6 for context.
(1) Expected recovery weights the deduplicated open ceiling by observed outcomes. It is conditional on submitting evidence, not a guarantee.
(2) This setup report is frozen on Aug 5, 2026. Later activity belongs to live monitoring.
Another €45,710 across 66 settled friendly-fraud disputes is historical context, not open money. Delivery and refund records are ready to review for the four still open.
In the same audit window, 31 settled disputes worth €11,930 also had tracking on file. The open and settled populations stay separate.
Each later order repeats a known dispute history. Review the customer record before another order ships.
This cohort is 2.9% of customers and 6.5% of refunded value. It is ranked for review, not labelled as proven abuse.
LOLA15 charged €48,900 and refunded €21,340, compared with a 91% kept rate across the other measured codes.
A masked account reference keeps the report actionable without exposing a customer name or raw contact data.
The queue combines refund amount with the reasons and evidence that pushed each item above the store baseline.
Checkout risk cleared the payment. It did not predict the later return or dispute behaviour recorded here.
Each address had an earlier chargeback or confirmed abuse record before the later order shipped.
Repeat refunds, disputes and shared-address links converge on the same masked customer records before their next order.
Missing reason data is shown as a coverage gap. It is not silently assigned to an abuse category.
A carrier difference can reflect damage, delay, customer mix or claims behaviour. It is context, not a verdict.
The report separates order share from disputed-value share so concentration is visible without calling the payment method fraudulent.
Product and category gaps help distinguish operational fit problems from customer-level abuse patterns.
The post-holiday returns wave explains a concentrated spike rather than a store-wide change.
The comparison is frozen with the report window and does not change after the audit runs.
€3,980 recoverable view · nearest deadline in 4 days · review disputes
Up to €2,140 · tracking on file · review disputes
€61,220 refunded · review-only amount · review customers
| Observation | Amount | Window |
|---|---|---|
| Recover Now · 2 observed | ||
| 4 open chargebacks look like friendly fraud | €3,980 | 4 still-open disputes |
| 9 open “never arrived” disputes have tracking to check | up to €2,140 | open today |
| Worth Reviewing · 6 observed | ||
| 9 customers kept ordering after a chargeback | €11,240 | 31 later orders · 12 months |
| 187 customers refunded 40% or more of everything they ordered | €61,220 | refunded · 12 months |
| Code LOLA15 kept only 56% of what it charged | €21,340 | refunded on code orders · 12 months |
| Account #5821 filed 14 refunds in 12 months | €6,120 | refunded · 12 months |
| 151 refunds scored medium or high risk | €33,604 | refunded · 12 months |
| 12 lost disputes came from orders checkout rated low risk | €3,410 | realized loss · 12 months |
| Watch · 2 observed | ||
| 18 orders shipped to a previously disputed address | €5,390 | order value · 12 months |
| 11 customers match two or more abuse patterns | €8,240 | prior refunds · 12 months |
| Context · 6 observed | ||
| 41% of refunded value has no recorded reason | €381,420 | recorded refunds · 12 months |
| Colissimo returns at 2.3× the Mondial Relay rate | No single amount | 9.8% vs 4.3% · 12 months |
| PayPal carries 61% of disputed value | €31,080 | 22% of orders · 12 months |
| Dress ROL003 refunds at 2.5× the store rate | No single amount | product vs store baseline |
| December ran 2.5× the monthly refund average | No single amount | 12-month store baseline |
| Refunds grew 1.6× in the most recent six months | No single amount | recent 6 months vs prior 6 |
Amounts can overlap between observations and are never added together. Recover rows share the deduplicated ceiling shown in Sec 01.
This is a data-rich fictional setup audit. Monthly issues can also add prior-period deltas and New, Handled or Still open statuses when that history exists.
New orders continue to receive risk context before fulfillment. Nothing is held automatically unless the merchant has enabled the corresponding protection rule.
Start with up to 12 months of available Shopify history, then score new orders before fulfillment. You decide what to review and which risks should trigger a hold.